Heated Tobacco: A Lukewarm Success Story

The Wrong Brief

After more than a decade of heated tobacco product (HTP) innovation, a hard truth remains: the industry still hasn’t created a product that most smokers want to switch to. While the latest systems are technically impressive, they fail to address the most fundamental need of adult smokers: a safer product that replicates the experience of the one they’re used to.

Despite billions in investment and notable successes such as IQOS, adoption remains limited. Why? Because the tobacco industry is solving for compliance, not experience. It’s focused on technology and regulation, while largely ignoring the sensorial, emotional, and habitual drivers behind smoking. The result: over-engineered products that don’t deliver the simplicity, satisfaction, or ritual that smokers still crave.

A History of Missed Opportunities

Heated tobacco products have evolved significantly from early products like RJ Reynolds’ Premier and Eclipse in the late 1980s and early 1990s, which failed due to a number of issues, including poor sensorial delivery. PMI’s later device-based products, Accord and Heatbar, were technological advances but still fell short on user experience.

The real commercial breakthrough came with IQOS around 2015. PMI reports approximately 34 million global users¹ as of mid-2025, with around 10 million in Japan, where HTPs are now used by nearly 48% of smokers. South Korea has also seen substantial uptake, growing from 2.2% in 2017 to 18.4% in 2024². Meanwhile, the UK market remains smaller and less transparent, and in the US, IQOS only recently resumed rollout, targeting a 10% market share by 2030. But let’s not forget, in the grand scheme, that 34 million is only approximately 2.5% of the global smoking population of 1.2 billion.

Moreover, most IQOS users remain dual users. A 2025 feature by BBC Future highlighted the challenge³. even among those who adopt HTPs, many continue to smoke. So, although HTPs are indeed commercially successful in some regions, the category is still far from delivering on its full public health promise.

Designing for Smokers, Not Regulation

Ask smokers what they want, and they’ll say the same thing they’ve said for 40 years: ‘a safe cigarette’. Not a vape. Not a gadget. Not a complicated ecosystem. They want familiarity, not friction.

Every deviation from that, every step that adds complexity or reduces satisfaction, creates a barrier to switching. And while regulators may reward harm reduction, smokers care only about the experience. Until the industry designs for that, it will continue to miss the mark.

The Real Challenge is Physics

In a nutshell, the issue is simply that all current HTP systems heat too much tobacco at once. Solving this requires a rethink of thermodynamics: how we heat small portions of tobacco sequentially, to mirror the way a cigarette behaves.

However, this isn’t just an engineering challenge around miniaturization and precision. It’s also a product design challenge that demands a radically simpler user experience.

Innovation Alone Won’t Fix It

We’re often asked why newer technologies like induction, infrared, or nanomaterials aren’t the answer. They do offer advantages – cleaner heating, faster startup times, and reduced maintenance – but they fail to address the core issue: these systems still heat all the tobacco at once⁴ and, as a result, the user experience still suffers from the same inconsistent delivery⁵ that ultimately disappoints smokers.

Without a shift in how the product works at its core, we’re just making sleeker versions of the same flawed idea. True innovation means rethinking the entire experience – not just refining the tech.

Manufacturing at Scale Without Sacrifice

A redesign can’t be just technically elegant. It needs to be manufacturable at cigarette scale of 20,000+ sticks per minute and cost-competitive with existing products. It must avoid materials that create ESG risk (like metal strips or embedded electronics) and minimize complexity across the supply chain.

Right now, many device-dependent systems rely on Chinese OEMs for production. That introduces cost, IP dependency, and geopolitical fragility. A next-gen solution should be simple, scalable, and ideally, device-free.

Sustainability That Doesn’t Compromise Experience

Most smokers don’t care deeply about sustainability. But regulators, governments, and public sentiment do. So, the next generation of HTP needs to build ESG principles into the core of the product without asking users to compromise.

That means no hard-to-recycle materials, minimal electronics, and biodegradability wherever possible. It’s possible to design a satisfying, cigarette-like experience that doesn’t create new environmental liabilities. But it requires going back to the fundamentals.

Conclusion: It’s Time to Start Again

The truth is simple. Smokers don’t want devices. They want a safer cigarette. Heated tobacco products, as they exist today, don’t deliver that. But they could.

With the right brief, the right team, and a fresh look at the physics, we can build something that finally makes switching make sense.

But Can One Company Solve it Alone?

Here’s the hard truth: this isn’t a challenge that one organization can fix in isolation. Developing a next-generation HTP product that delivers a consistent, satisfying, and cigarette-like experience while also being scalable, sustainable, and compliant demands a level of investment, cooperation, and shared standards that the industry isn’t used to. The future of heated tobacco won’t be built by one player. It will be shaped by shared platforms, harmonized standards, and industry-wide collaboration, much like the models already proven in the EV and pharma sectors. It will be shaped by those who are bold enough to work together.

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References

1. Marking the 10-year anniversary of PMI’s HTP development efforts): “Philip Morris International (PMI), 2024. Celebrating 10 years of smoke-free progress. [online] Available at: https://www.pmi.com/our-progress/celebrating-10-years-of-smoke-free-progress [Accessed 3 Sept. 2025].
2. IMARC Group, 2025. Heated Tobacco Products Market Report by Product (Stick, Leaf), Category (Regular, Flavored), Distribution Channel (Online, Offline), and Region 2025-2033. [online] Available at: https://www.imarcgroup.com/heated-tobacco-products-market [Accessed 21 Aug. 2025].
3. BBC Future, 2025. Are heated tobacco products a new health risk? [online] Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/future/article/20250501-the-truth-about-heated-tobacco [Accessed 3 Sept. 2025].
4. Farsalinos, K.E., Yannovits, N., Sarri, T. and Voudris, V., 2018. Nicotine Delivery to the Aerosol of a Heat-Not-Burn Tobacco Product: Comparison with a Tobacco Cigarette and E-Cigarettes. Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 20(8), pp.1004–1009. [online] Available at: https://academic.oup.com/ntr/article-abstract/20/8/1004/3868870 [Accessed 3 Sept. 2025].
5. Truth Initiative, 2024. Quitting Tobacco: Facts and Stats. [online] Available at: https://truthinitiative.org/research-resources/quitting-smoking-vaping/quitting-tobacco-facts-and-stats [Accessed 3 Sept. 2025].